CBS: 'The Mentalist' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program	Status	Renew/ Cancel Index
Hostages		0.56
Blue Bloods (F)		0.59
The Mentalist		0.59
Hawaii Five-0 (F)		0.62
The Good Wife		0.63
We Are Men*	canceled	0.74
Elementary		0.79
CSI		0.83
Person Of Interest		0.89
Mom		0.93
Two and a Half Men		1.00
The Crazy Ones		1.09
2 Broke Girls		1.09
Mike & Molly		1.11
Criminal Minds		1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles		1.12
The Millers		1.20
NCIS		1.34
How I Met Your Mother	final season	1.36
The Big Bang Theory		2.27

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Because the cancellation of veteran CBS shows is heavily influenced by non-public economics like syndication deals (for shows produced by CBS) and license fees (for shows produced by others) it's not nearly so cut and dried as the Cancellation Bear's predictions for CBS rookie shows, where current ratings overwhelm other possible factors.

Besides Hostages, CBS is almost certain to cancel at least one more drama this season to make room for new dramas next season, and that drama will be a veteran. (If this spring's Intelligence happens to get renewed, that might mean yet another drama needs to go, but the bear will leave that until much later).

Because of those non-public factors, and the fact that the relative ratings between The Good Wife and The Mentalist are not likely to tip the scale heavily towards one or the other before the end of the season the bear is unlikely to have much more information in May about those two show's prospect than he does today.

When pushed at the end of the season (by himself) to predict up or down, the bear will take the fact that because The Mentalist is produced by Warner Brothers, it is more likely to meet its end this season than The Good Wife, which is produced by CBS, so he might as well make the prediction today. And he has.

If more dramas need to be canceled to fit CBS's scheduling needs next Fall, The Good Wife is likely to be next (vs. one of the Friday dramas), but that's a topic for another (probably many other) posts.

SRC: tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/